Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Quick Look At 12 UTC Forecasts


This morning's forecast runs are interesting because of the wide range of precipitation amounts being forecast through late Friday afternoon. The GEFS plumes for QPF (above) at airport average around 0.40", but note that the operational GFS (blue) is the very wet outlier.


These two WRF forecasts (from 12 UTC this morning) show the impact of the GFS operational forecast on the fine grid version of the WRF. The WRF GFS (above - driven by the operational GFS) forecasts 1.50" at the airport through 4:00 pm MST on Friday. However, the LFM version (below) forecasts only 0.30" - quite a difference and time will tell, but the NAM version seems more believable when compared with the GEFS plumes at top.


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