Weak, short wave at 500 mb coming by today and tonight bringing some higher PW with it. PW values reach 1/2 to 3/4 inches late today and tonight. View above shows some heavy, middle cloud out north of Kitt Peak this morning.
With the increase in moisture, the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS model forecasts a bit of CAPE (forecast sounding below for TWC at 4:00 pm MST this afternoon). Hard for me to buy into the surface-based, well-mixed BL up to 700 mb, with low levels so dry. Will check evening sounding to see what actually evolved. The model does forecast some very light showers over eastern Pima County this afternoon and evening. These would be most likely over the Sky Islands and would not bring much in way of rainfall to the surface. But a bit of "weather" to watch.
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