Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Little To Report On For At Least A Week

Webcam image (from Jack Hales cam wall) a bit after sunrise at Cabo San Lucas this morning. Low latitudes but dry environment, with not a cloud in the sky.

Forecast above is of total precipitation through 5:00 pm an April 10th (from 00 UTC WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid). The dearth of precipitation for much of the Southwest forecast to continue.

Shown here are the GEFS mean and spaghetti plots for 500 mb, also from 00 UTC last evening. At 96-hours another of a series of weak and dry short waves continues at about every 2-3 days. The 168-hours forecast below, shows that this pattern continues through 7-days.

But by 240-hours (at bottom) the GEFS forecasts the possibility of a significant pattern change with stronger troughing along the West Coast (ECMWF forecasts this change also). However, by 10-days there is much spaghetti on the plate and a high degree of uncertainty. I've noted the last few days the global models have consistently forecast this change BUT kept it out at 240-hours in each successive forecast run. I also note that 14 of last 20 Aprils produced measurable precipitation here at house - so we can hope for pattern change, sooner the better.

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