This morning's NAM forecast at 12 UTC indicates the 500 mb trough over Great Basin will close off and move across southeastern Arizona tomorrow afternoon (above is 12 UTC analysis and below is forecast valid at 5:00 pm MST tomorrow).
As the low moves across our area, the morning models forecast slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the cool, northeasterly flow north of the low. Bottom is the 12 UTC WRF-NAM forecast of radar composite echoes valid at 5:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps of note is that the same forecast indicates outflow winds of around 40 mph into the metro from the echoes coming off the Catalinas.
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