Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Forecasts - Little Change From Yesterday

Some color in backyard this morning.

The model forecasts this morning are little changed from yesterday - some afternoon winds followed by showers and perhaps thunderstorms into tomorrow morning. Airport gusted to 31 mph yesterday and may be a bit stronger this afternoon.

Visible satellite image above from 6:30 am MST - cloud bands from here to California. Some of the middle level clouds to west at sunrise were producing virga - so perhaps a sprinkle or two before the nighttime event. The MIMIC analysis below at 1300 UTC indicates PW values of at least an inch trying to sneak our way.

SREF plumes above are from 09 UTC runs - spread is from 0.00 to 0.45" at airport, with average about 0.25". Forecast of composite radar echoes below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS run) shows an active early morning period around 2:00 am, with thunderstorms. Second below is forecast from same run for total precipitation through noon tomorrow.  The GFS version is the wettest of the various WRF forecasts - with both the NAM version and 12 UTC WRF-RR forecasting only a Trace at airport. We shall know by morning which of the QPF forecasts was closest to TUS observations.

No comments:

Post a Comment