Sunday, April 28, 2019

Unsettled Day Tomorrow

There is a mid and upper-level cyclone this morning out west of San Diego - above is upper-level water vapor image from 10:30 am MST and below is NAM 500 mb analysis at 12 UTC this morning. Models forecast this system to be kicked eastward and to move across Arizona as an open trough tomorrow afternoon and night (second below).

In addition to gusty southwinds tomorrow afternoon, the morning WRF models all forecast a line of light showers across Pima County during the afternoon (below is 12 UTC WRF-RR forcast valid at 4:00 pm MST tomorrow). So there is some possibility of virga and light showers or sprinkles here in metro area. Models also forecast a bit of CAPE ahead of this line - basically an unsettled day to bring the very dry month to an end.

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