Thursday, April 11, 2019

Plains Blizzard Moves East - Look At Next Short Wave

Plains blizzard has moved eastward - leaving many Interstates closed from northeastern Colorado to southwestern Minnesota. Photo above is from son in Loveland, Colorado, who took this yesterday shortly after snow had begun there. Photo below is of Boulder Creek taken this morning.

"Weather" here yesterday was mostly wind, and some blowing dust, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph common across the state - some wind-prone spots reported gusts over 50 mph.

This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows the blizzard-associated closed low over eastern Nebraska, and another digging short wave approaching Washington state. The NAM 500 mb forecast from 12 UTC this morning (below) indicates the trailing short wave will be over Arizona by noon tomorrow.

Some of the GEFS members (above - from 06 UTC forecasts) forecast a very light precipitation event for the airport. Values of PW (below from 13 UTC MIMIC analysis) show very low PW values over all the Southwest. The plumes for PW(second below) show forecast average values to remain below 0.50" through the coming week here.

Forecast below is from 06 UTC WRF-NAM and shows precipitation forecast through noon on Saturday - very little precipitation except along the Rim Country.

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