Cumulus over the Catalinas at sunrise this morning.
The morning forecast for the airport from NWS this morning below, indicating 30% chance of measurable rain there, for tomorrow.
The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis above (from SPC) depicts a weak, closed low somewhere just west of northern Baja. This feature is forecast to open up, gradually weaken, and move across Arizona tomorrow during the day.
This morning's upper-air plot for TWC above (again from SPC) shows a sliver of CAPE, with PW up to 0.70". The forecast below (from Atmo's 06 UTC WRF-GFS) for TWC is valid at 2:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon. The forecast sounding indicates PW continuing around 0.70" and with slight CAPE of around 150 g/Kg - note very dry and hostile conditions for deep convection above about 650 mb.
Down at bottom is forecast for total precipitation through 11:00 am on the 8th (Friday). The midnight runs of WRF keep meaningful precipitation well to our north and southeast. Not a very bullish forecast for our part of state. Will check the more current forecasts later this morning.
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