Friday, December 20, 2019

Mild Through Weekend Then Unsettled

Cabo San Lucas today before sunrise (above and next to bottom, from Jack Hales webcam wall). Down at bottom are views of LAX. An aside - I have wondered what the purple towers in this view are. At bottom is image from an online description of them: they are a part of the visual design of entrance to airport, and are 100 ft+ towers that change colors at different times - during early morning they seem usually to be purple hues.

Next weather system is coming for Christmas. The 500 mb forecast above (from 00 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo) shows a cold trough moving into Arizona at 6:00 am MST on the 24rth. The GEFS ensembles forecast (below, from o6 UTC model runs) indicate a precipitation event that occurs with this trough, mostly on Christmas Eve (Tuesday). This is far enough out that there is considerable variance in amounts forecast for TUS. Significant cooling is also forecast for the showery period - second below.

Forecast below is from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS and is for precipitation amounts through noon on Christmas day. If one looks very closely at this forecast, there appears to be a donut hole over Tucson. We will wait to see what the weather Santa brings us.

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