Monday, December 09, 2019

Early Morning Rains

Heavy clouds over Catalinas this morning as viewed from Atmo.

Radar above was from 6:09 am MST and shows line of strong storms moving across metro area. Plot of CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala) shows thunderstorm activity centered on Pima County for 24 hours ending at 7:23 AM (light pinks to white are most recent flashes).

ALERT rainfall measurements for 24 hours ending at 7:23 (second below) shows many sites with over half an inch. Only four sites had less than 0.04" and most sites over metro reported a quarter to half an inch. There was 0.48" in gauge here a bit ago.

Morning 500 mb analysis above shows short wave over the lower Colorado River Basin, about as predicted by models - perhaps a bit stronger than many forecasts last two days.

Forecasts here from 00 UTC WRF-GFS. Forecast of PW above was valid at midnight today. Rain amounts were better than I expected with the stream of higher PW coming in from west-southwest. Below is model's forecast of precipitation through 6:00 pm this afternoon.

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