Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Chance For Light Showers Tonight And Wednesday

Very nice morning here in Tucson, but Pacific weather system may bring chance of showers tomorrow.

The 500 mb analysis this morning (above) shows a closed low west of California. This low is forecast to open and move rapidly eastward. The GFS forecast below is valid at midnight tomorrow night.

As the weakening trough moves across Arizona, models forecast chance for light showers. The forecast above is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR and shows forecast precipitation amounts through noon on Thursday. Amounts in the forecast are very light, with nothing indicated for the airport. The QPF plumes from last night's GEFS forecast runs (below) also indicate chances for very light showers, with the ensemble average (black) indicating about 0.05" inches at airport.

Quite a change from today, but certainly not a significant event according to latest forecasts.

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