Monday, December 23, 2019

Damp Holiday Week

Ragged clouds hang over the City and the Catalinas at about 6:45 am MST this morning - above. Down at bottom are views of the bright, pre-dawn lights at Cabo San Lucas and Ketchikan, Alaska.

Very unsettled week on tap as a 500 mb short wave swings across the state tomorrow followed by another at end of week. The 500 mb forecast (above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS runs, as are all WRF graphics here) shows the first short wave over the lower Colorado River Basin at 11:00 am tomorrow morning.

The GEFS plumes (below) for rainfall at airport below forecast two periods of significant precipitation during the week - Christmas Eve and around Friday.

The WRF forecast for composite radar echoes above is valid at 11:00 am tomorrow morning. The forecast sounding below is for the same time. There is little CAPE in the forecast, but the deep, saturated layer could support a rumble or two of thunder, in addition to the rains. Second below is the WRF forecast of precipitation amounts from now through noon on Christmas day.

Certainly appears that last minute, pre-Christmas chores would best be done today.

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