Monday, January 31, 2022

Showers Wednesday?



Sunrise views at 7:30 am this morning: above from campus and bottom from Sahuarita.

Models are forecasting a chance for showers on Wednesday as a strong 500 mb trough approaches Arizona. The GEFS plumes for QPF (above) show that almost all members forecast measurable rain for the airport - amounts range from 0.30" to perhaps a Trace. Snow levels will come down onto the foothills and perhaps to some valleys in Cochise County. Plumes for temperature (below) indicate quite cold morning lows for Thursday through Saturday.


Forecasts from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo show radar echoes at 6:00 pm MST on Wednesday (above), and total precipitation amounts through noon on Thursday.

Not a big precipitation event, but at least a bit of weather to watch. 

Current morning forecast from the Tucson NWS Forecast Office is second below. Note the 28F low for Thursday morning - this implies a very cold morning up here along the Rillito.




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