Nice pre-sunrise color this morning with middle and high clouds overhead - top from campus and bottom from Sahuarita. Today is the first day of astronomical spring, and perhaps it will bring us the first rain of meteorological spring?
Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS members (above QPF at airport and below temperature) indicate a high chance for light rain today and tonight. The temperatures are forecast to be cool today and tomorrow, and then to warm dramatically during the week.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS is very dry, but the 13 UTC TPW analysis (above) indicates values over half an inch out in southwest Arizona. An approaching 500 mb trough will help bring the moisture our way today.
The 5:30 pm MST sounding forecast from the 06 WRF-HRRR (below) shows some CAPE below 500 mb by late afternoon. Looks marginal for thunderstorms, but certainly supportive of low-top showers. Second below shows precipitation forecast by same model run through noon tomorrow.
Should be an interesting afternoon and evening.
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