Monday, March 28, 2022

March Ending With Showery Weather

Some nice color over Catalinas a bit before sunrise this morning.


The NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for critical fire danger today, as per area shown above, due to strong winds and low relative humidity. The 06Z run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo forecasts steady winds in 20 to 25 kt range both this afternoon and tomorrow. Forecast below is for winds at noon tomorrow, with strongest speeds over New Mexico and northern Mexico.



A strong 500 mb system is west of California this morning, and the 06 UTC run of the GFS model forecasts it to be over Arizona by 1800 UTC tomorrow (above). The GEFS plumes (below) continue to forecast rainfall at the airport during the day tomorrow - as they have for past 4 or 5 days. Amounts have been fairly consistent too, with averages of 0.2 to 0.3" at the airport.

Above is the 12 UTC sounding plot for TWC, showing moist conditions above 500 mb and strong winds aloft, from just above the surface. Forecast sounding below (from same WRF run) is valid at 11:30 am MST tomorrow morning. Forecast indicates CAPE after frontal passage, so there may be a chance for some thunder, since CAPE layer extends well above the -10 C level. 

The WRF forecast for precipitation through midnight tomorrow is shown in second graphic below. It indicates 0.20" at airport, but with higher amounts over much of Pima County.

March definitely not going out like a lamb this year.


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