Thursday, July 02, 2009

Brief Summaries

Yesterday was not as active as Tuesday. There were lots of storms but steering level winds weakened during the day in southeast Arizona and anvil level winds became southerly. Thus, here at house the early storms down on the south side of metro area anviled us out and this was reinforced by more thick anvil clouds coming up from the borderlands.

The visible image from 0100Z yesterday evening shows how widespread storms were across the Great Basin and Southwest, into California. The Pima County ALERT network had measurable rain at 46% of the gauges but amounts were much smaller than on Tuesday. Only 3 stations had ½ inch or more – with 1.93” at Arivaca being the only amount over an inch. Here at the house we had a Trace in some light anvil sprinkles at dark. I also see that storms avoided the Phoenix area once again.

Today – once again heavy debris cloud and a few showers cover the central part of the state. There appears to be a bit more CAPE today with the lifted parcel having theta-w of 23 to 24C this afternoon (but the slopes in Sonora appear to have 26C which will produce very deep storms again today with very cold tops) – assuming some good sunshine. Skies are clear along the eastern portions of the state. Local heavy rains are main threat today. The shear profile remains quite bad with anvils streaming out in same direction storms will be trying to move. Don’t get rain here at house in this flow pattern unless something bubbles up almost right overhead. Also see the NAM precip forecast has another donut hole over the Phoenix area this evening.

No comments:

Post a Comment