Monday, July 20, 2009

Rob Kursinski Wrote:

We drove through a lot of blowing dust on the way back from Phoenix to Tucson between 7 and 8 pm last night. At one point several cars pulled off I-10. We found puddles of water in the driveway when we arrived but the portable basketball hoop didn't get knocked over like it had Friday.

On the RRS sonde problem, note also that the RRS is typically (but not always) drier than the GPS PW values which will lead to a systematic underestimate of precipitation. (Remember the good old days when the sonde and the GPS agreed to 1 to 2 mm except when there was a thunderstorm over one but not the other.) As I noted to Mike Leuthold the other day, in our paper in the NAME dedicated CLIVAR issue from April 2008 I think, when conditions are near the edge of triggering deep convection, the amount of rainfall (iat least in the virtual reality of WRF) is very dependent on the initial PWV. For the wetter of the two days we examined, the sensitivity in the southern Sonoran region was such that once the minimum amount of PWV was exceeded for deep convection, adding 1 mm of initial PWV increased the average rainfall over the region by 6 mm (!).

Another interesting point, Carlos Minjarez noted yesterday is that while Sonora has been getting some impressive MCSs, Hermosillo has actually gotten very little rain so far.

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