After a week or so of beautiful, dry sunny weather here in the Southwest, the large-scale pattern is changing and a week or more of unsettled, winter-like weather lies ahead.
There is currently a S/W or cutoff west of southern California. This feature breaks under the large, west-coast ridge at 500 mb and moves quickly eastward across the Borderlands under the larger S/W that is over Idaho this morning. The NAM forecasts widespread precipitation ahead of both S/Ws - see 48-h precipitation forecast at top that ends at 5 pm MST Sunday afternoon.
The Idaho S/W at 500 mb digs to the south-southwest behind the first wave and is moving across Arizona on Monday afternoon and night, bringing continued chances of precipitation. The second figure above is the GFS 96 hour forecast - the GFS ensemble members (from 00Z last evening) all forecast precipitation over southeastern Arizona for the 24-hours ending at 5 am next Tuesday. So, the models indicate an unsettled period with the ensembles indicating 100% POPs but light precipitation amounts over low elevations - this stormy period may continue through the coming week. So, more weather to watch.
No comments:
Post a Comment