Sunday, February 21, 2010

Some Quick Updates

Sunday afternoon - February 21, 2010 Photo above shows a light shower on the Catalinas

Yesterday evening another band of rain showers moved into the Tucson greater metro area, adding to the midday rainfall amounts. Here at the house the final total came to 0.38". Amounts for the 24-hours ending at 7 am across eastern Pima County ranged from about 0.20" to around 0.75" with the higher amounts in the foothills below the snow level and in the Redington Pass area.

Another system is approaching from the north this afternoon. The GFS ensemble members have all been forecasting precipitation over southeast Arizona with this system since at least 96 hours ago (for the 12 hour period ending at 5 am on Tuesday morning).

Interestingly, there is yet another forecast on the weather page of the Star this morning that is out of sync with the forecast that NWS has had out (60 to 80% for tomorrow) for a number of forecast cycles. I assume that someone isn't checking either the NWS forecast nor the GFS ensembles nor..... regardless, weather followers this morning would find 50% chance of rain tomorrow in the newspaper and 80% chance in the current NWS forecast. Hopefully these problems are in the way AccuWeather does it forecasting from back in Pennsylvania!

The GFS ensemble members are predicting (almost unanimously) another precipitation event over southeast Arizona next weekend on Saturday night and Sunday (February 27 and 28). Will be interesting to watch to see if subsequent model runs remain consistent with this morning's predictions.

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