The Pacific storm mentioned the last several days is currently located south-southwest of SFO. The forecast models continue to dig the 500 mb cutoff far south down the California coast before swinging it inland across southern Arizona tonight and tomorrow. The slush bomb storm that hit the Northeast will finally begin moving off to the east Sunday afternoon and night, letting the Southwest system move on eastward. The NAM forecasts a nice precipitation event with a quarter to more than an inch of water over southeast Arizona, with highest amounts in the mountains. During the last several winters I have been continuously impressed by how accurate the forecast models have become - particularly over the eastern Pacific where offshore jetstreams are now predicted very well. All quite amazing to someone who started forecasting when the operational model was the barotropic and the PE model was an experimental test model!
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