The much advertised precipitation event for this weekend has been pushed back in time a bit by this morning's NAM forecast run. The very complex and persistent 500 mb cutoff in the east (see top graphic) has several vorticity maxima rotating around its western and southern peripheries. These are holding the system in place longer and preventing the rapid movement eastward of the strong S/W and cutoff forecast to be over the Southwest Saturday night and Sunday morning. The NAM is now forecasting a more substantial precipitation event for southern Arizona - see bottom graphic with 24-hour forecasted precipitation for period ending at 5 pm Sunday afternoon - with the bulk of the predicted precipitation occurring during the day Sunday.
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