Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Rain Shifts Mostly To East

The first 12-hours of the significant rain event that the models have been predicting for the Tucson area pretty much fizzled out. The morning storm totals from radar (7 am 3 Feb 2010) shown above indicate little in the way of rain accumulations except down around Sierra Visita. The most significant rains with the subtropical disturbance have stayed in Mexico and also shifted eastward into southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Here at the house we had some sprinkles after dark last evening but only had a trace in gauge this morning. Only 14 of 97 (about 14%) Pima County ALERT gauges had measurable rain during past 24-hours and amounts were quite light, except for a couple of sites in the Catalina Mountains - Mt. Lemmon 0.39" and White Tail 0.31". This morning's NAM run forecasts some westward shift in the showers during the day today but keeps Tucson right along the northern gradient of the heavier rainfall. The morning TWC sounding indicates only a tiny sliver of mid-level CAPE, so forcing will be mostly orographic and large-scale vertical motion for any rains we do get. We'll have to watch today to see if this much-advertised, model-predicted high POP event actually brings us enough rainfall to wet down the streets.

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