Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Bit Of A Tease

First, there were actually some middle and high clouds passing by early this morning, making this a fairly big weather day.

The NHC has identified two areas of potential tropical storm formation this morning over the eastern Pacific. One of these has a high risk for storm development - so, we'll keep an eye to the south.

This morning's NAM forecast has a bit of a tease in the forecasts out at 84-hours (valid time 00 UTC on the 17th of June - i.e., Saturday afternoon). The 500 mb chart forecast for then (above) indicates a large, summer-like anticyclone over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Fairly strong southerly winds are forecast over much of Arizona, with a nice fetch from low latitudes. The 700 mb forecast (below) is similar and hints at increasing moisture from the south.

And, the 24-hour precipitation forecast ending at 84-hours has showers and light rain northward across New Mexico with the western edge of activity along the Arizona-New Mexico border.

I'm calling this a tease, since the GFS and ECMWF forecast take the 500 mb low west of Baja strongly to the southwest, with ridging and dry Pacific air intruding over the Southwest.

At least there's a bit to watch weatherwise, especially with the tropical activity noted over the east Pacific.

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