Saturday, June 16, 2012

Strong Outflow And Dust This Afternoon?

The Atmo run early this morning of its high-resolution version of the GFS-WRF model forecasts afternoon thunderstorms over higher elevations of southeast Arizona. The composite radar forecast for 2 pm today (Saturday, June 16th) is shown above. The forecast of 10-m winds, below, indicates that a strong outflow from the forecasted storms is already running northwestward across the Tucson metro area at 3 pm. Some of the winds are quite strong, so this outflow could be very dusty, causing reduced visibilities (assuming the forecast verifies, of course). The model also forecasts another outflow moving north from storms in Mexico. This outflow impacts far southeast Arizona and the New Mexico Boot Heel. Will be interesting to observe how well the model forecast verifies this afternoon.

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