Thursday, June 21, 2012

Disturbance South Of Gulf Of California

There is a disturbance south of the Gulf of California (just at southern edge of this morning's NAM 700 mb analysis - above) that appears to moving north-northwestward at current time. In fact satellite loops indicate that it is actually positioned a bit north of where the NAM analysis indicates. Most important question is: How strong a surge of low-level moisture will this circulation be able to trigger? Note that this feature may have its roots linked to what was once Hurricane Carlotta.

Current NESDIS blended TPW product (above) indicates an advance of higher values already occurring up the Gulf of California (GoC), with values of 30+ mm indicated about half way up GoC.

The NAM 72-hour 850 mb and PW forecast is shown above - valid at 5 am MST on Sunday morning the 24th. Forecast indicates a significant surge of GoC and an mT intrusion into southern Arizona. Very interesting situation. Typically a GoC surge evolves much faster than the NAM and GFS forecasts, so tomorrow morning could see the arrival of substantially higher dewpoints.

Mike Luethold tells me that the WRF-GFS runs this morning forecast storms in southeastern Arizona tomorrow - display problems have kept me from viewing the models forecast products past 9 pm this evening.

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