First - a bit on a chilly morning here in the Tucson area. Dewpoints were quite low yesterday and I checked on the NWS grid point forecasts of morning low temperatures for today (March 28th) - checked the grids last evening around 7 pm. The following is a quick verification of the grid forecasts at a number of locations: TUS low 47 or 48F (48F); here at house low 37F (50F); Mt. Lemmon Sollers RAWS low 32F (39F); Empire RAWS low 33F (39F); Mt. Hopkins RAWS low 34F (41F) and Nogales low 39F (43F). While the forecast for the airport (forecasts are in parens) was quite accurate, but all the rest of the grid point forecasts I checked were systematically too warm by 4 to 13F.
The ECMWF forecasts a progression of short waves at 500 mb to move across the Great Basin/Southwest and then across the Central and Southern Plains during the coming 10 days (there is also a 500 mb short wave crossing the Plains today). The three forecasts above are valid at 00 UTC on March 31, April 3rd, and April 5th (24-h height changes are in orange and blue). The forecasts promise little except cool windy periods for southern Arizona, but severe thunderstorm activity should be associated with each of these shortwaves as they move east of the mountains.
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