This morning it appears that the ECMWF is trending toward the GFS wrt the short wave forecast across Arizona on Wednesday and Wednesday night (the 26th), so the GFS may prevail for this event. The 48-hour forecasts from this morning are now forecasting 500 mb heights across central Arizona to be about 5640 m in both forecasts (ECMWF above and GFS below), with the short wave becoming a low amplitude, fast-moving feature within nearly zonal flow. The early run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo last night forecasts gusty winds across Arizona and New Mexico on Wednesday afternoon (bottom graphic is 10-m winds valid at 2 pm), with strongest winds across northern portions of the states and also out west along the Colorado River. Will check the WRF forecasts again tomorrow.
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