Saturday, November 22, 2014

Arizona VS Utah Likely To Be Sloppy/Cold

Edited to add graphic of SLC NWS radar at game time.

Arizona and Utah meet this afternoon (at Utah) in an important football game for both teams. Weather looks like it will provide a serious challenge for both the teams and the fans, as a cold front and precipitation are approaching northern Utah. Current NWS forecast for a grid near the University is shown above - wind, rain, and then wet snow for the game.

I took a look at the early WRF-NAM (forecast on 5.4 km grid, initialized at midnight last night) and the forecast above shows radar echoes forecast for 2 PM MST today - near start time of the game. Definitely wet and cold and possibly turning white by the time the game ends. Forecast below shows accumulated precipitation for period ending at 5 pm. I see that this morning's line is Utah by 4 1/2 and wonder if the line considered the forecast for a sloppy situation?

As for yesterday's short-wave here in southeastern Arizona - the system brought little in the way of showers for most of eastern Pima County. But, there were showers and thunderstorms to the south and southwest of Tucson during the evening. Rain was measured at 6 of the 92 ALERT sites over the far southwest part of the network. The plot of detected CGs above is for period ending at midnight last night and indicates thunderstorms along the border and in northern Sonora, as the wave passed by.

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