Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Miscellany AM 5 November

Morning low temperature here at house this morning dropped to 41 F sometime before the winds kicked in, up 11 F from yesterday's low.

At longer ranges the ECMWF prevailed again, forecasting the current 500 mb closed low (analysis above for 12 UTC this morning) over Sonora much better than did the GFS. However this feature ended up a bit too far south to pull moisture from Vance back into southeast Arizona. Moisture from Vance, combined with slow-moving cold front in Texas, is bringing heavy rains to much of the state this morning, as per the surface plot below from 1345 UTC.

Finally, the early run of the WRF-NAM keeps fairly gusty east winds blowing across southeast Arizona through morning tomorrow. Bottom is 10-m wind forecast valid at 9 am MST tomorrow morning.

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