Thursday, November 20, 2014

Weak Short-Wave Trough To Cross Southern Arizona

Another cold morning here along the Rillito Wash with a low temperature of 28 F at the house.

Above is this morning's NAM analysis for 500 mb. The short wave and vorticity maximum west of Oregon and northern California is forecast by the model to dig southeastward and cross Arizona tomorrow and Saturday. The 500 mb forecast below is valid at 12 UTC on Saturday morning.

This system is moisture starved, but models forecast some light showers across parts of southern Arizona tomorrow into Saturday morning. Above is current NAM forecast of precipitation through noon on Saturday, while the early WRF-NAM from midnight forecasts some amounts of a quarter inch and bit more over in Cochise County. WRF forecast of rainfall below is also valid through noon on Saturday. 

No comments:

Post a Comment