Friday, July 31, 2015

Quick Look - Last Day Of July

Morning thunderstorms have mostly weakened now, except south of the border. Large area of residual showers and heavy cloud cover is drifting slowly westward across Cochise County, and a small area of showers in eastern Pima County is moving west along I-10. There are large areas of cloudiness this morning over New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, and northern Sonora. It is likely that there are MCVs/weak inverted troughs associated with the debris systems east and south of Tucson area. There is also a larger, but weak trough south of the Four Corners region - net result will be a complex and somewhat chaotic large-scale setting today.

The morning skewT plot of the 12 UTC TWC upper-air data (above from SPC) shows another onion shaped sounding - but importantly, one that requires minimal heating to produce a deep boundary layer that will have moderate CAPE. The vertical wind profile remains very poor with chopped-up, light winds below 300 mb. Storms at low elevations will evolve depending upon the amount of local heating - looks like best sunshine will develop just to west of heavy clouds moving west from Cochise County - and the evolution of outflows. It will be another day for careful monitoring of the hour-to-hour evolution of storm activity, especially since possibility of downbursts and heavy rains will be significant with strong thunderstorm cores.

Finally, the NHC has upgraded TS Guillermo to a Cat. 1 hurricane this morning (IR image of storm below is from 1330 UTC). Guillermo is west of 130 W and moving off toward the Big Island of Hawaii - so not of much interest to us in the Southwest.

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