Monday, July 13, 2015

Brief Summary Yesterday And Latest Dolores Forecast

Thunderstorm activity yesterday did shift westward some, however, heaviest storms were focused in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. Plot of detected CG flashes above is for 24-hours ending at 11:00 pm MST last night (from Atmo and Vaisala). Anvil shading was indeed a problem for the metro Tucson area, and most storm cores crashed as they tried to move northward into the city. Some high-based storms developed in the evening over parts of town. We had a rumble of thunder here and then a few minutes later a nearby positive flash produced a loud crash of thunder. Very light showers with this storm produced only 0.03" of rain here.

Across the ALERT network 28 sites had 0.04" or more of rainfall, with heaviest amounts off in the southwest sector of the network - below. The metro-west sector, second below, shows little occurred over most of the city. Highest amount of 3/4 inch occurred near Green Valley, as a heavy storm came off the Santa Ritas (Mt. Hopkins RAWS had 1.01").

TS Dolores has grown quite large and may be a hurricane now. The latest NHC forecast for Dolores is shown above and the track has shifted some to the east and is now favorable for a GoC moisture surge later this week. The IR image below is from 1330 UTC and shows Dolores south of Cabo Corrientes with TS Enrique out to the west around 125 W. There are two large areas of clouds and convection located well north of Dolores, increasing the likelihood of a an amplified moisture push into the Southwest. 

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