Friday, July 31, 2015

Pre-Sunrise Storms And Showers Over Southeast Arizona

As models were suggesting yesterday there are early morning showers and thunderstorms over parts of northern Mexico and southeastern Arizona. The IR satellite image above shows debris cloud over much of Pima County from a decaying MCS in Mexico. There may be a few sprinkles from this debris cloud and south winds have pushed PW back up over 1.60 inches (as per GPS estimates on campus). The MCS over the Chirichuas off to the East remains active, as per the 5:00 am composite radar chart below.

The two WRF graphicss here illustrate composite radar forecasts from the 06 UTC runs - both runs have forecasted some of the early morning situation quite well, while being considerably off wrt other details of the situation. The forecasts are both valid at 5:00 am, the time of the radar chart above. Which version (WRF-NAM above and WRF-GFS below) of the forecast is "best"? That certainly depends upon where the evaluator is located - the NAM version looks pretty good if you're in Tucson or Nogales, while the GFS version looks very good if you're out east in Portal or Paradise.

Regardless, with MCS debris and residual circulations across southeast Arizona at sunrise, the forecast for rest of the day may prove challenging.

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