Monday, July 27, 2015

Brief Look At Today - Monday 27 July

Yesterday was almost totally suppressed and quiet north of the border, except for the far southeast corner of Cochise County. Northern Mexico was also very much down, after stabilizing impacts of the MCSs on Saturday night - Mike Hardiman mentioned this in his comment yesterday.

This morning we continue to be under the cloudiness wrapped around the west side of the 500 mb anticyclone, even though the center of that feature has shifted far to east this morning and is now over Arkansas. There are two features of interest within the easterly flow on south side of anticyclone - a weak cyclone is located over southern end of Baja and a large, somewhat diffuse, inverted trough is over east Texas. The inverted trough is forecast to move slowly in our direction, while the feature over southern Baja shifts northward and mostly westward.

The TWC morning sounding (skewT for 12 UTC data below from SPC) is considerably more moist this morning with PW up by almost 4/10s of an inch and surface dewpoints at airport up more than 10 F from 24-hours ago. But, even with this moistening, I estimate only a sliver of CAPE for low-elevations this afternoon, although mountains should be more unstable. The troposphere overhead seems devoid of any meaningful, organized wind field - a really miserable situation that continues into our new week. 

Forecasts from the various Atmo WRF runs overnight indicate only isolated showers and thunderstorms along the border and some of the higher elevations of southeastern Arizona today. Things will likely pick up by mid-week as the feature from Texas approaches.

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