Thursday, September 10, 2015

Another Damp And Dreary Morning Here in Tucson

Another down day here in eastern Pima County yesterday, and today starts out dreary and overcast, as per above view of the Catalinas - the last five days have been a serious waste of an unusually moist atmosphere. There have been some light sprinkles around during the night (Trace here and at airport), with only Mt. Lemmon and Manning Camp recording 0.04" of rainfall across all 93 sites in the ALERT network.

The CG flash density chart below (for 24-hours ending at 6:00 am MST this morning - from Weather.Graphics and Vaisala) shows that thunderstorms over Arizona were isolated yesterday and mostly over the mountains from the northeast corner of state to the southeast corner.

Unusual early September storms occurred over the mountains surrounding the LA area yesterday. There were actually severe thunderstorms and wind damage reported around Riverside, and an almost freakish outflow across San Clemente (which is right on the ocean), with reports of large trees down.

As for today, the TWC morning soundings could support thunderstorms if there were to be intense sunshine and high afternoon temperatures, but this is not in the cards. The 06 UTC runs of the WRF model at Atmo both forecast suppressed conditions to continue over our area, with just light sprinkles and showers from Linda's debris. Models do forecast isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along Arizona's southeast Borderlands.

I'll finish with brief overview of the PW observations. The CIRA analysis above (from Colorado State Univ.) is valid at 08 UTC this morning and shows the tremendous amounts of PW associated with the late Hurricane Linda. The GPS time series (below, from ERSL) shows that PW on campus has remained steady around 1.50 inches during the past five days. The graphic at bottom is for this morning's 12 UTC soundings and is from Matt Bunkers' web site at NWS Rapid City. Note that many sites have standard deviations of 2 or more above normal values for this date.

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