Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Model Waffles

There is widespread discussion today among weather-folks about the low-predictability of the current weather patterns over North America - see Pat Holbrook's comment on previous post. Most attention is understandably focused on Hurricane Joaquin and what its track will be during the coming five days. Current model consensus seems to be that it will hit the central Atlantic coast.

Out here in the West there have been large forecast changes - again - in the operational GFS forecast during the past 32-hours. Above map shows the 60-hour precipitation forecast by the model for period ending at 5:00 pm MST next Monday, October 5th. In that forecast Arizona experiences a significant, early October precipitation event. However, the same forecast ending at same time from the 12 UTC GFS run this morning (below) leaves Arizona high and dry. There are other regions with changes that are huge - as per the Southeast and Northwest US changes in the forecasts. The new ECMWF does seem to indicate some precipitation in Arizona over the weekend into Monday - but details are unknown to me. Umbrellas in-hand for Sunday and Monday? this far out flip a coin, given the current pattern. 

Finally, the CIRA blended PW analysis for 2:00 pm this afternoon (below) shows that high PW continues to lurk on both sides of Baja, only about half way down the GoC - how far north will it come?

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