Thunderstorms in distance yesterday afternoon at about 2:52 pm MST - above is south view from Kitt Peak and below north view from campus.
Models were pretty much right on yesterday, with storms staying out to our west and along the terrain gradients of central Arizona. Above plot is of CG flash density for the 24-hours ending at 1145 UTC (from Weather.Graphics and Vaisala). Only one far western site in the ALERT network measured rainfall yesterday.
The 06 UTC runs of the WRF models are fairly similar for this afternoon. Both bring storms back to eastern Pima County, as the moisture eases back toward the north and east. Both versions keep most rainfall off to the southwest of Tucson - below is the NAM version forecast for rain through midnight tonight. The GFS version is a bit wetter.
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