Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Another Down Day Yesterday - But Morning Showers Today

Yesterday was again very suppressed over most of Pima County, but with some thunderstorms to the east. There was no rainfall measured across the ALERT network. The above plot shows CG flash density through 5:30 pm MST for past 12-hours (from Weather.Graphics and Vaisala); activity was pretty much over by that time. However, CG flashes since midnight (below from Vaisala and Atmo) show widespread storms along the east side of the southern 2/3rds of the GoC - note also the new thunderstorm development just to our west. 

Radar at 7:06 am this morning, above shows the composite display, indicates a line of showers and a couple of thunderstorms across Pinal County, extending southwestward across central Pima County - line is moving eastward and northeastward and now has several stronger storms with it. The 06 UTC run of the WRF-NAM this morning had the right idea but was a couple of hours fast - forecast of composite radar below was valid at 5:00 am. The evolution of this line will play a large role in determining the local weather for the rest of the day.

The huge plume of moisture and clouds to the north and northeast of Hurricane Linda above is VIS/IR image from 1330 UTC will dominate our weather for the next several days. The morning sounding from TWC (12 UTC skewT below from SPC) again presents a mixed bag - abundant moisture, but only slight CAPE above the old BL from yesterday, coupled with very light winds below 500 mb, makes for a very uncertain day, especially with the deep, heavy cloud cover.

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