Sunday, September 06, 2015

Evening Update - September 6th

So far this late afternoon and evening the WRF-NAM forecasts have been closer to reality than have those from the WRF-GFS. Most storm activity has been in Santa Cruz County. Storm cores have dramatically weakened recently - composite radar above is from 8:10 pm MST. An outflow is moving northward into eastern Pima County, and the main question is whether nocturnal storms will develop in our area - there have been hints in the high-resolution models that some storm activity may develop/persist past midnight.

TS Linda has been upgraded to a hurricane by the NHC, and current predicted track for Linda is shown just below. The storm is forecast to move close enough to the south end of Baja that it could trigger a Gulf Surge. The 7:30 pm IR image at bottom shows that Linda has a very large cloud and shower pattern associated with it, so it will be interesting to see how this new tropical system affects us here in Arizona.

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