Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Another Late Night/Early Morning Event

Last night's event evolved pretty much as forecast by the WRF-GFS, shown in previous post, with a generally light rainfall event at lower elevations of the Tucson area. The plot above shows 24-hour rain amounts at 05:00 am MST this morning across northern 2/3rds of the ALERT network. Amounts in metro area generally from less than a tenth to around a third of an inch. There was only 0.13" here at the house. Two sites appear a bit suspect - Coronado Camp with 1.18" and Italian Trap with 1.54" - but perhaps believable, since nearest neighbors are over half an inch.

Winds across southeast Arizona gusted in the 30 to 40 mph range. Pioneer Airfield hit 49 mph and the exposed RAWS site at Guthrie recorded 65 mph.

This morning at 500 mb the western trough and cold temperatures prevail (above GEFS average valid at 12 UTC), but by the weekend a significant ridge builds over the western US and Canada - forecast below valid at 05:00 pm on Saturday, January 28th. Arizona remains under the western tail of the eastern US trough, so that we look at a cool week, with perhaps a bit of unsettledness around Friday.

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