Monday, January 23, 2017

Little Change In Tonight's Forecast/Tornado Outbreak In Southeast

View from Kitt Peak above is looking north at a bit after 06:45 am MST. The lights in distance are probably Casa Grande and it appears that there may already be some light showers occurring out there.

The forecast models continue to forecast a fast-hitting precipitation event tonight, along with gusty winds and a strong cold front. The QPF plumes for Tucson airport (from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts) above indicate a tight clustering in time for tonight, with amounts ranging from about 0.20 to 0.40". The 06 UTC forecast from the WRF-GFS run at Atmo (below - forecast of total precipitation through noon tomorrow) indicates light amounts at low elevations.

Over the weekend a deadly tornado outbreak struck the Southeast US, causing widespread destruction and about 20 deaths. The plot just below (from and Vaisala) shows CG flash density for the past 48-hours. Severe thunderstorm and tornado reports from SPC for Saturday are shown at bottom.

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