Purple skies before sunrise this morning at about 6:00 am MST, but some green to yellow hues at about the same time south of Kitt peak (bottom).
An IR satellite image at 0711 am (below) shows cloudiness across the southeastern half of Arizona, extending westward across northern Baja.
At 500 mb at 12 UTC this morning (above) there is a weak showrt wave across southern California, while the main short wave is to the north, across Idaho to northern California. In forecast below (from 06 UTC GFS - valid at 12 UTC on Tuesday the 27th), the southern short wave has vanished, while the main system has dug south-southeastward and is centered to our east over the New Mexico boot heel.
The GFS forecast for precipitation from same run and ending at same time (second below), keeps the meaningful rain well to our northeast.
The digging wave brings some chances of light showers at the airport - above SREF plumes (from the SPC site) show several heavier outliers, but most members forecast amounts at airport ranging 0.00" to about 0.30". Because the system is quite moisture-starved, I favor the runs that keep rainfall light to a Trace.
Main impacts of this event will be gusty winds beginning later today and extending into Monday, with much cooler temperatures. Perhaps the occurrence of lows near, or below freezing, will occur here at house by midweek.
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