At last, some clouds in the morning skies! - below, over the Catalinas a bit before sunrise, and pink skies south of Kitt Peak about same time (bottom).
The 06 UTC GFS analysis for 500 mb (above) shows a large, broad trough over the U.S. and Canada, with a weaker short wave southwest of California. The GFS forecast (below, valid at 11:00 am 27 October)) from same run indicates the weaker short wave will minor out across northern Mexico, while the main trough digs southward across Arizona. Forecast indicates main trough situated just out to the west of Tucson. at mid-day on Tuesday.
The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC last night forecast a chance for light precipitation on Monday or Monday night. Amounts in the forecasts are light ranging 0.00" to about 0.25". Given our extreme dryness of the past 55 days, any rainfall here would be much appreciated.
Two forecasts here for total precipitation through 11:00 am on next Tuesday - above is from 06 UTC GFS, and below from 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo. Neither of those model runs forecasts much action for our part of Southeast Arizona. Will watch to see how this situation evolves over next couple of days, but definitely windy tomorrow and Monday, as well as much cooler Monday through Wednesday.
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