East Winds This Morning

View from campus a bit before 11:00 am MST this morning - note flag left side of image.

Wind forecast above from 18 UTC WRF-NAM yesterday was valid at 8:00 am this morning and forecast below from 12 UTC WRF-GFS valid at 11:00 am this morning. Note that forecasts for wind speeds have weakened some since yesterday and that main stream of strong winds shifted considerably northward.

Plot below shows current MesoWest observations of winds with any gusts that were noted. Strongest winds are being observed over the southwest portion of metro area. Strongest gust at airport have been as high as 39 mph. Winds here are currently estimated only at about 15 mph.  

Another Beautiful Day Here In Tucson

 

A beautiful Sunday afternoon here in Tucson, with only a few high clouds going by. Temperatures are in the low 70s F this afternoon.

However, a back-door cold front will move across southern Arizona tonight bringing only slightly cooler temperatures for tomorrow, but with strong and gusty east winds.  The surface plot above (from a little after 4:00 pm MST shows that the front is about to move into far southeastern Arizona. 

The 18 UTC WRF-NAM forecast (below) from Atmo is valid at 8:00 am tomorrow morning. Note that steady 30 kt winds mean about 35 mph winds with gusts likely in the 45 to 50 mph range. So, tomorrow will bring quite a change from our great weekend weather.

Thanksgiving Morning

Sunset last evening at Denver (above) and Prescott (below). Down at bottom first image shows satellite view of the city lights of Arizona and New Mexico at 1215 UTC this morning. Second image shows a showery Cedar City, Utah, early this morning.

At 500 mb a strong short-wave is digging southeastward across Arizona. Maps here (from the 06 UTC GFS forecast last night) are valid at 18 UTC today, 06 UTC tonight, and 18 UTC tomorrow - top to bottom.

The system's weather impacts remain well to our north, and bring us only chances for some gusty afternoon winds today and especially tomorrow. 

Forecast of total precipitation through noon tomorrow is below, with snow amounts second below. System is obviously moisture-starved as it crosses Arizona.

  

November Drawing To A Close

 

Unwrapped all-sky cam on Mt. Lemmon at 6:05 am MST this morning. Down at bottom is all-sky cam from Kitt Peak this morning - note Big Dipper upper left and Orion lower right. 

Already windy on Kitt Peak with with gusts over 40 mph. The WRF-GFS forecast below from 06 UTC is for winds valid at 3:00 pm MST this afternoon. Note that 19 kt is 22 mph, so winds may gust to around 30 mph this afternoon - if WRF model verifies well.

Temperatures will trend a bit cooler this weak, as a 500 mb short-wave digs southeastward across the Four Corners region. Forecasts here from 00 UTC GFS are valid at 11 pm on the 26th (above) and 11 pm on the 29th (below).

This will be yet another moisture-starved system, as they all have been this Fall. Forecast above from 00 UTC WRF GFS is for PW (mm) valid at 5:00 pm on November 27. The Southwest is forecast to be extremely dry - itchy and scratchy dry-skin weather. From the same model run (below) is forecast for total precipitation through 5:00 pm on November 30th.  So it goes - surely December will bring us some moisture?

Coming Week

These images loaded in reverse order, but I'm not going to start over. Above is view early this morning of the Christmas lights in Alpine, Wyoming (from Jack Hales webcam wall). Down at bottom is view of Catalinas from campus. Second from bottom shows 13 UTC WV image for upper troposphere - looks like continuing stream of high, thin cirrus coming our way off the Pacific.

Here are plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS run last night for the airport: Top shows PW decreasing marked during the coming week (note leading zero was cut off a bit); above shows the dismal outlook for rainfall; below shows temperature having a bit of a cooling trend during the week; and second below indicates a windy day tomorrow. Second below shows the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds for tomorrow.

November Warmth/Baby Yoda

 

View of San Francisco Peaks from Flagstaff yesterday afternoon shows no snow visible, as the unusual November warmth continues with no precipitation.

Skies are clear this morning and above image is the unwrapped version of the Mt. Lemmon skycam from 5;30 am MST this morning. Glow to the south is from Tucson, and I assume that the green/yellow glow to northwest is Phoenix metro area.

Forecast below (from the 06 UTC run of GFS) is for total precipitation through 11 pm on November 30th - most of the Southwest and northern Mexico continue high and dry. Only November rainfall here at house has been 0.15" on the 9th, which seems ages ago. But, it could be worse - there have been four Novembers here since 1999 with no precipitation.

Finally an excursion - Baby Yoda seems to be showing up everywhere these days - from the international space station (above) to the Grand Targhee Resort's "Stick of Truth" (below).

Hurricane Iota

Views of the Catalinas just before sunrise this morning (above and bottom) - finally, some clouds in the sky. (Note - I am having alignment problems with some images and can not correct the offsets that are showing up at times.)

Hurricane Iota approaching Nicaragua as a Category 5 storm at 2220 UTC yesterday (above) and as a weakening storm at 1250 UTC this morning (below). Note the disturbance south-southwest of Baja - this system may develop into a storm during next few days.

The morning NHC forecast (second below) seems to indicate that the depression remnant of Iota will move into the Eastern Pacific Basin - something to watch next couple of days.

Record Breaking Heat This Week

Sunny and very clear skies this morning. Bottom is view of lights of northeast Tucson before  sunrise.

The GFS forecast for precipitation above is valid through 5:00 pm MST on November 30th - not much except chance for some mountain showers in the northeast part of state. 

The forecast for highs near or above 90 F at airport (below) means that some records will likely be broken this week. Record high temperature for today is 87 F. 

Certainly doesn't seem like third week of November out there - note that today's normal high is only 73 F.

Warm Up Here/New Hurricane in Gulf Of Mexico

Another morning with not a cloud in the sky here, as a new period of fair weather commences. Down at bottom is current view from Ft. Myers, Florida, where Hurricane Eta is located off to the southwest of the city.

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC for temperature at the airport (below) indicate a gradual warm-up that extends into the middle of next week. 

In the Gulf of Mexico, Eta has become a minimal hurricane, according to statements from the NHC. Eta is currently northwest of the the Florida Keys, and forecast to move north-northeastward toward the Tampa area. Current forecast, below from NHC, takes the system across northern Florida as a tropical storm. The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at Tampa (second below) show that the member forecasts have a huge range of almost 5 inches during the day 1 forecasts - not much help there!