Friday, November 06, 2020

Weather As Uncertain As The Election


Some nice color this morning just before sunrise - above. Saturday through Monday will be unsettled, for a change, and current morning forecast from NWS is below, indicating chance for showers Saturday and also Sunday night/Monday.

Series of 500 mb charts here (from the 06 UTC GFS forecasts) show two short waves digging south to northern Arizona, bringing the two chances for showers. Forecasts from the 06 UTC GFS are valid at 12 UTC today (above); 5:00 pm MST tomorrow (below); and noon on Monday (second below). This is quite a change from the stagnant pattern we've been in, and we might actually get a bit of rain after almost 70 days of drought!

Will finish here showing the 09 UTC SREF plumes from SPC through Monday. Above shows temperature plunging during the period. Below is CAPE, which indicates most unstable air with the first event - certainly enough CAPE for a possibility of thunderstorms late tomorrow. The QPF plumes are all over the place (bottom), and indicate light rain amounts with both events.

Took a quick look at the WRF forecasts from last night and those runs favor the second event for measurable rain across Tucson area.

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