Skies are cloudy to partly cloudy this morning, with some rays of sunshine peeking through - above and bottom.
At 500 mb this morning (above) the leading short wave is over northern California and digging south-southeastward., with central temperatures as low as -30 C. Locally, PW has been increasing during past day and a half, reaching values approaching 1 inch (below).
The morning sounding at TWC (above from SPC) has a layer of middle-level moisture, but no CAPE. Middle level temperatures are a bit colder toward Phoenix, and there has been some thunderstorm activity east to southeast of there. The SPC outlook has a chance for strong thunderstorms today, mostly to the north and east of Tucson, partially because of the very strong winds below 500 mb.
Here are two forecasts from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast at Atmo. Above shows a forecast for strong winds (both in northeast and southeast Arizona) valid at 1:00 pm MST this afternoon. Below is the model's forecast for total precipitation through 6:00 am tomorrow morning. So, the model forecast keeps significant precipitation today well to our northeast.
But certainly interesting weather changes underway today and tonight - WRF forecasts bring a strong cold front across area during the late night tonight.
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