Unsettled Couple Of Days This Week

Pre-sunrise view to the east from Sahuarita at 6:50 am MST this morning. Down at bottom is view of San Francisco Peaks (with touch of sun at summit) and of Flagstaff.

The 500 mb forecast above (from 06 UTC GFS run valid at 11 pm MST Tuesday night)) indicates a strong, short-wave trough moving into Arizona. This feature will bring strong winds and precipitation to the state.

Shown here are GEFS plumes from the 06 UTC run last night. Forecasts above are for QPF that indicate light amounts for the airport Tuesday into Wednesday morning. below shows the plumes for temperature, which indicate strong cold front and much cooler temperatures on Wednesday, but with a gradual warm-up during rest of week. Second below shows plumes for wind, which indicate strong and gusty conditions at the airport on Tuesday. Very unsettled conditions tomorrow and Wednesday.

Map above shows hazards for the western two thirds of country. Note that there are some differences among the NWS offices in the Southwest. The TUS office has highlighted nothing; Phoenix has highlighted strong winds; Flagstaff has issued snow and wind advisories; and Albuquerque has wind advisories for the northeast part of the state but nothing for western New Mexico.

 Looks like an interesting couple of days!