Some nice color over the Catalinas just before sunrise this morning. At bottom is unwrapped view up at the SkyCenter on Mt. Lemmon at 6:55 am MST - note the waning moon at top of tree on right side.
As a 500 mb trough sets up along the West Coast, several weak disturbances will affect Arizona for the Holiday Weekend. However, the chances for rainfall at airport are all over the place. The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) range from zero to over an inch. The operational GFS (blue) is a heavy rain outlier. At this time it appears that the most unsettled period will be centered on Christmas Eve.
Forecasts from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS (above radar valid at 5:30 pm on Christmas Eve and below forecast total precipitation through 11:00 pm Christmas Eve) indicate about 0.20" inches for airport, with the heavier portions of the event just extending southward into the mountains of eastern Pima County.
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