Saturday, December 18, 2021

Week Ahead

Very clear skies this morning, as early sunshine illuminates the Catalinas.

Morning low temperatures have been quite chilly this morning, as per above from MesoWest. Low here at house was 26 F - first morning of Fall/Winter with temperature in the 20s (lows yesterday and Thursday were 32 F - first freezing temperatures here at house).


Looked at the GEFS plumes for the coming week. Forecasts for QPF at airport for week (above) indicate chances for light showers at end of week, and on Christmas weekend; plumes for temperature (below) indicate a basically mild week - plumes are showing a bit of a warm bias for morning lows; plumes for wind (second below) indicate periods of gusty winds on Christmas Eve and Christmas. 


Precipitation amounts for Arizona around Christmas have a decreasing trend past few runs. Below is GFS forecast (from 06 UTC run last night) for 60 hour precipitation amounts ending at 11:00 pm MST Christmas night.

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