Monday, February 15, 2021

Showers Late Tuesday?


Mostly clear skies this morning, but with a bit of pink cloud east of the Catalinas. Down at bottom: ice covered trees near Avoca in northwest Arkansas, and deep mounds of snow burying Moscow in eastern Russia (both yesterday afternoon).

The GEFS plumes continue to indicate high probability of rain at airport tomorrow (above from 06 UTC runs).

The NWS forecast for the airport (above) indicates slight chances for showers tomorrow, but the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast continues to keep any precipitation far to our northeast. Forecast below, from 06 UTC WRF-GFS, is for precipitation through Wednesday morning.

The WRF has been the better forecast re precipitation so far this month. The model does forecast more winds for tomorrow afternoon - second below.





 

Sunday, February 14, 2021

Another Miss


Morning clouds over the Catalinas, with a sunshine spot about 7:30 am MST. Views at bottom: showers and a wet I-10 out east near San Simon, Arizona, and snow over at Albuquerque's airport.

The WRF forecasts from Friday and Saturday morning were more accurate than the GFS/GEFS and local forecast office outlooks. Afternoon forecast yesterday was still for 50 percent chance of rain at airport, while WRF forecast nothing. Nothing is what happened across the metro area, but there were five reports of rain on the northeast side of the Catalinas - amounts were only .04 to .08 inches, and there was a dusting of snow up high. Nothing here.

There were a number of reports of light rain amounts across Cochise County to our east and southeast - above reports are through 6:00 am from MesoWest.

So very little to report from another moisture starved miss.



Saturday, February 13, 2021

Showers Tonight?



High overcast this morning at sunrise with some nice color.  Down at bottom is view from Kitt Peak looking north about 5 minutes later. 

The only precipitation report (looked at both MesoWest and ALERT data) that I could find for past 24-hours was 0.16" at Dan Saddle on north side of Catalinas, but a couple of the high elevation sites had a bit of snow during the night.

Below is 06 UTC GEFS forecast of temperatures at the airport for coming week. Cooler temperatures through Thursday then rapid warming, but hardly a taste of winter - note that the GEFS temperature forecasts have a cool bias. For example, this morning's NWS forecast high for today is 72 F and for Monday (President's Day) it is 65 F.


IR satellite image this morning (above for 1331 UTC) indicates a negatively tilted trough to our northwest. This feature is forecast to have moved just to our east (GFS 500 mb forecast below) by midnight tonight.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) continue to forecast high probability of light showers tonight. Current POPs from NWS are for a 50 percent chance of measurable rain (i.e., 0.01" or more) at the airport.

 However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) continues to forecast little for all of the southwestern half of Arizona through noon tomorrow. (This product popped up with a white background, which makes it much easier for me to decipher.) Our last measurable rain here at house was 0.12" on the evening of 29 January.


So right now the GEFS (above) and WRF-GFS Atmo run (below) from midnight forecast mostly gusty winds as the short wave moves by. The WRF forecast below is valid at 4:00 pm MST this afternoon.


Friday, February 12, 2021

Gray Morning To Start Long Weekend



Heavy, ragged overcast across the Tucson area this morning (above), but bit of sun peeked through at sunrise as per views at bottom from Mt. Lemmon and Kitt Peak.

The 06 UTC GEFS members forecast of temperature for TUS (above) indicates cooling during the Holiday weekend.
The ensembles (above) forecast chances for light showers this evening, Saturday night, and then again on 16th and 17th. All members forecast rain at the airport on Saturday night, indicating POPs near 100 percent for the second event. However, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (below) indicates very slight chances for rain in metro area and nothing at airport. Last time there was this kind of difference the WRF prevailed.


The ensembles also indicate a windy weekend (above), and the WRF forecasts strongest winds to occur on Saturday night, with forecast below vaild at 11:00 pm MST. Note that the winds are from the southwest, which is strongly downslope in the high-resolution WRF grids.



Tuesday, February 09, 2021

Lightning Decrease And Severe Storm Reports

Map above shows 2020 CG flash density, while map below shows total flash density per county versus five-year average. As per the previous post, the decrease over most of the country is easily seen, as are the increases from Michigan to the northern Plains.


Note that the number of severe and damaging wind reports were essentially the same for both years (16064 in 20219 versus 16039 in 2020).

Changes in reports of severe hail (above 2020 versus 2019 below) are not easily apparent between the two years (2020 above and 2019 below) are not easily apparent, except perhaps in the West. Severe hail is defined by SPC as being 1 inch or greater in diameter. But, the total severe hail reports in 2019 were 5396 versus 4611 in 2020 - a decrease of 15 percent).


The decrease in tornado reports though for 2020 is fairly apparent in the 2020 plots (above) versus those for 2019 (below). Tornadoes in 2019 numbered 1676 versus 1243 for 2020 - a decrease of 26 percent! This probably means that there were significantly fewer supercells in 2020, as well as fewer occurrences of very large hail

Friday, February 05, 2021

Lightning And Precipitation 2019 vs 2020

Yesterday I started taking a look at lightning data for 2019 versus 2020. This was motivated by an article in the Washington Post that reported that Vaisala had noted a 23 percent decrease in total lightning activity across the US from 2019 to 2020. The year-to-year drop in lightning activity is the largest the company has noted in its 31 years of record keeping.


These two figures compare total lightning density counts for 2019 (above) versus 2020 (below). The biggest decreases appear to have occurred over east Texas, from Kansas eastward to the central Mississippi Valley, and across much of the western third of the US.


The changes in CG flash density (above versus below) seem somewhat similar; however, since Vaisala produced these maps using different color scales, they are quite hard to compare directly.


Comparing annual precipitation for the states is quite interesting (2019 above and 2020 below). The entire northern half of the country was much drier during 2020 than it was in 2019. The southern Plains were drier, and the Southwest was extremely dry (as we well know here in Arizona). The total lightning density plots shown in first four maps above, also reflect the extreme dry conditions in the West - particularly from much of Arizona northward across the entire Great Basin Region and into the Northwest.

Of interest are the the very wet conditions across the Southeast in 2020, where there appears to be little change in the annual total density plots. I find this quite puzzling, and don't have any hypotheses for this strange disconnect between the annual lightning and the annual precipitation.


 

Thursday, February 04, 2021

Decrease In Lightning During 2020

 An article in the February 3rd Washington Post reports on a decrease in lightning activity during 2020; the article is at:    

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/03/annual-lightning-activity-us/?arc404=true

The map above shows annual total "lightning events" during 2020 as reported by Vaisala. The counts are for 2 by 2 km grid boxes and include both CG and in-cloud flashes. The article reports that the 2020 lightning events were down 23 percent relative to 2019.

Map above shows regions of increase and decrease during 2020 relative to past 5 years. The color bar for above map is unfortunate, since it makes determining the zero change line impossible. However, the "by county" plot below allows one to see the chaotic no change lines (boundary between the light pink and light blue grid boxes). The big changes in California and the Northwest (regions with extremely low lightning activity) were due to a couple of active days in August that triggered numerous significant wildfires. The huge area of the West having fewer lightning flashes reflects the continuing severe drought conditions in that part of the country.

There were significant increases in thunderstorm activity in large area extending from Ohio, across Michigan, much of Minnesota, and the eastern half of North Dakota. there also appears to have been a significant increase in south Texas along the Rio Grande. (Note that chart below is for 1 by 1 km grids rather than 2 by 2.) Some of the other small increase areas in the Plains were likely due to singular intense thunderstorms. Will take a look tomorrow at changes in severe thunderstorms reports.

Tuesday, February 02, 2021

Groundhog Day 2021

Amish carriage navigating a wintry road in Lancaster, PA, yesterday.

Phil sees his shadow this morning - so his "prediction" is six more weeks of winter. I'm sure that brings dread in the Northeast. But since there's been little winter out this way, a few more winter storms and some rain in the gauge would be welcome.

My favorite Bill Murray shot at bottom.


Monday, February 01, 2021

January 2021 Summary



Replaying Art Douglas' great lenticular photo from the 18th over the San Pedro Valley.

Here at house during January we had 0.88" inches of rain - perhaps some snow was mixed in on night of the 25th. There was measurable rain on six days, with greatest total being 0.33", also on the night of the 25th. January precipitation last year was 0.70".

During the past 21 Januarys here there have been three years with more than 2 inches and two years with no precipitation. Average here for those 21 years has been 1.03".

As for temperatures - there were 19 days here at house with a morning low of 32 F or colder, compared with last January when there were only 12 mornings with freezing or colder. There were 4 days with a low of 25 F or colder, and coldest morning was 23 F on the 13th. Note that my setup here doesn't allow me to record accurate high temperatures.

New Month

 

Cloudy early morning here at start of February. Unwrapped Mt. Lemmon SkyCam at 6:13 am MST this morning above, and some pink hues from campus a bit before 7:00 am, below.

The large snow storm in the east has been making national news. Down at bottom are views of Wrigley Field yesterday afternoon, and New York's Times Square this morning.

Will post a brief January summary a bit later this morning.


Temperatures are very mild this morning (plot above from MesoWest was at 7:00 am) due to clouds and some gusty east winds at places. It's been almost 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, when low at airport was 38 F and 32 F here. This morning the low at airport has been 57 F, and here at house it was 47 F some time during night, but is in the middle 50s now.

The 06 WRF-GFS forecast above is for wind speeds at 9:00 am this morning, and GEFS 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the airport are below. The plumes indicate slight chances for light showers at midweek.